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SCHEDULE: NOV 16-22, 2013

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SESSION: Mystic: a framework for optimal performance modeling and risk

EVENT TYPE: Emerging Technologies

TIME: 4:10PM - 4:30PM

Presenter(s):Michael McKerns

ROOM:Booth 3947

ABSTRACT:
From a broad perspective, our ongoing work in the mystic project concerns the development and implementation of a comprehensive, rigorous and algorithmic framework for uncertainty quantification (UQ), thus enabling the rigorous calculation of critical system design elements (such as value at risk and hedge) on systems operating under uncertainty. Our mathematical and software infrastructure supports Caltechs Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program Center (PSAAP) and the Exascale Co-design Center for Materials in Extreme Environments (ExMatEx). Our framework is built to address model uncertainty and optimal design questions such as: How good is my model? How can I best improve my model? Given the uncertainty on the system performance, does it make sense to push certain design boundaries? Is there an optimal representation of the system which reliably predicts performance? How can I find it? Can I turn the problem of finding the best model given computational constraints and available information into an algorithm? Questions like these become especially relevant in the design of the first generation of exascale computing platforms, where it is expected the systems will operate under high rates of failure. We will discuss ongoing work to extend mystic to the computation of optimal statistical estimators, and how this may be leveraged in the optimal design of future exascale systems.

Chair/Presenter Details:

Michael McKerns - California Institute of Technology

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